Tag:Roster Trends
Posted on: April 15, 2009 10:17 am

Thoughts About Roster Trends

I tend to trust people until they can no longer be trusted. This goes for individuals as well as groups of people. I buy into the theory of "The Wisdom of Crowds ". Because of this belief, my favorite feature of our site is the Roster Trends (Stats/Roster Trends for those of you following along at home) area. It used to be that you had to scour the boxscores each day to see who was playing well and who wasn't. Roster Trends changed all of that. Now there is a place where I can come to quickly gauge what is going on in the Fantasy Baseball world.

First, I'll usually check out 'Most Viewed Free Agents' to see if there is anyone that is worth a pickup in my league. Then, as I dig a little deeper, I check out the 'Most Added and Dropped'. When I am making lineup decisions, I'll check out 'Most Activated/De-Activated Owned' players to see if there are any red flags I should be concerned about. Finally, the 'Most Traded' is probably the most engaging part of the site because I can see what the open market value of my players is. I am always shocked as I dig down and see some of the trades that get made on this site. I never seem to be able to pull off those kinds of trades. For instance, I'm checking out the Most Traded area right now and I am looking to see what Brandon Morrow is going for. I see a trade in an AL-only Commissioner league where Morrow, Gio Gonzalez, and Brandon Wood were traded for A-Rod and Papelbon. Really? If anyone in my league will give me A-Rod and Papelbon for Morrow and a couple of prospects, you know where to find me. Regardless, I can still look around that page for hours. Fascinating.

But I am becoming concerned that we as a group (the fantasy baseball players) are getting lazy. All too often, it seems that the Most Viewed players are players that have recent news posted about them by our content team. I guess it's like a chicken or the egg type philosophy. Is our content team doing a great job pointing out the hot players and we are reading up on them? Or do we, as a group, follow the hot players and our content team just happens to be writing about them? I'd love to think that EMack and the rest of the Fantasy Baseball experts on our site are so good that they just know what is going on all the time.  But if that is the case, and they are driving the Roster Trends pages, then what do we need Roster Trends for? I could just as easily check out the Player News area to see what is going on.

Average Draft Position (ADP) is essentially the same type of number as what we see in the Roster Trends area. It is user-driven data. It takes all of the data from all of the drafts on our site and aggregates it so that it shows you what the average draft position for each player is. It's too early in the Baseball season to make any sense out of the Average Draft Position (ADP) numbers, but for Football what we saw was disturbing. The ADP for the top 5 QB, RB, and WR were as follows:

QB - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer

RB - Ladanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai

WR - Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald

Based on results from the season the top 5 of each based on how they actually performed:

QB - Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rogers, Jay Cutler

RB - DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Thomas Jones

WR - Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Roddy White

Granted there were some unforseen injuries involved, but still...only 1 from each position actually made it into the top 5. And just scouring the rest of the list, as a group, we weren't even close on most of rest of the guys. 

I'll admit the the early results for Baseball in terms of ADP look a lot better. But as far as Roster Trends go, I went into my league for the last few days only to see that Marco Scutaro is the Most Added Free Agent, his ownership went up 33% this week. Yes, I am in a deep league, but still....Marco Scutaro? He's now owned in 44 percent of leagues. I'm not even sure he'd start on our company softball team. 

Anyway, like I said, I love the Roster Trends.  But we, collectively, should be setting the trends not following them. Use the Roster Trends as a guide, not the law. Please! The fate of my Fantasy Baseball season lies in your hands.


The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com